Russell Investments: Expects the Fed to Begin Tapering or End Loose Monetary Policy in Early 2026, Terminal Rate at 3.25% to 3.5%
On December 9th, Russell Investments Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman said in a report that the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this Wednesday is a tough call—with FOMC members split on how much "insurance" to offer the economy amid a rare mix of solid growth and weak job gains.
Russell Investments expects the Fed to deliver a hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut, with its forward guidance on future rate moves likely to remain cautious.
"We anticipate the Fed will slow or pause its easing cycle in early 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25% to 3.5%," Eitelman noted. He also pointed out that the current 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.1%, above Russell Investments’ fair value estimate—supporting a strategic allocation to duration risk in portfolios.
(Source: Golden Finance)
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HYPE drops to lowest point since May 21st, as a whale's long position faces a $15.3 million unrealized loss
December 9th — Per Onchain Lens monitoring, the HYPE token has fallen to its lowest level since May 21, currently trading at $27.7, marking a 9.1% drop over the past 24 hours.
A whale holds 1.38 million HYPE tokens in a long position, sitting on an unrealized loss of $15.3 million. The position is valued at $38 million, with an entry price of $38.67 and a liquidation price of $22.16.
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Alpha Arena 1.5 Season Update: Grok 4.20 Maintains Lead, All Other AI Models Remain at a Loss
Alpha Arena’s Season 1.5 launched on November 20, and as of December 9, only one of the eight major AI models competing has turned a profit: Grok 4.20. At the bottom of the leaderboard, Grok 4 posts a -52.45% return on investment (ROI).
Previously, Elon Musk hailed Grok 4.20 as “the greatest quant trader” and quipped, “Looks like we’ve finally found a way to pay for all the GPUs, haha.”
Here’s the current ROI for all participating models:
- Grok 4.20: 22.27%
- GPT-5.1: -1.41%
- GEMINI-3-PRO: -24.28%
- DeepSeek-3.1: -24.51%
- Kimi 2: -25.8%
- ThousandQ 3-MAX: -29.36%
- Claude-sonnet-4-5: -32.44%
- Grok 4: -52.45%
This season, models face off in multiple themed matches. The 1.5 format centers on live trading of U.S. stock tokens on trade.xyz, where all models in the same match receive identical inputs.
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Barclays: Fed to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points This Week, Another 25 Basis Points in March and June Next Year
Dec. 9: Barclays expects the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range at this week’s monetary policy meeting. The post-meeting statement will likely strike a hawkish tone, signaling a pause in rate cuts for January 2024. The bank currently maintains its forecast for 25-basis-point rate cuts in March and June 2024.
Barclays believes the updated economic projections summary may show little change to economic forecasts, while the dot plot will likely indicate one 25-basis-point rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. The median long-term interest rate forecast is expected to remain at 3%, per FXStreet.
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JPMorgan: Fed Rate Cut Fully Priced In, U.S. Stocks May See Profit-Taking
On December 9, a JPMorgan strategist noted the recent U.S. stock market rally could stall after a potential Federal Reserve rate cut as investors take profits.
Led by Mislav Matejka, the JPMorgan team wrote in a report: “Investors may be more inclined to lock in gains before year-end rather than increase directional exposure. Rate cut expectations are fully priced in, and U.S. stocks have returned to highs.”
The strategist remains bullish on the medium-term outlook, citing the Fed’s dovish stance as supportive for U.S. equities. Matejka added that low oil prices, slowing wage growth, and easing U.S. tariff pressures will allow the Fed to ease monetary policy without stoking inflation.
Other factors poised to lift U.S. stocks in 2026 include: reduced trade uncertainty, an improved Asian economic outlook, increased eurozone fiscal spending, and rapid artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in the U.S.
(Source: Jinse)
10 minutes ago
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