QCP: Cryptocurrency Market Expected to Have Further Upside, Coinbase Inclusion in S&P 500 Index Could Be New Catalyst

On May 14th, QCP released its daily market observation, indicating that the US-Saudi trade led to a market rebound. The US and Saudi Arabia signed a milestone $600 billion trade agreement, which prompted the removal of tariffs and triggered a new wave of risk appetite. The US CPI came in lower than expected, easing market concerns about inflation and boosting expectations for rate cuts. However, the Fed remains cautious. The current market expectation for the first rate cut is in July, but we believe that a more realistic time frame may be September. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025, while the expectation was four cuts a month ago. In this round of rebound, the crypto market outperformed the stock market, with the Bitcoin price approaching its all-time high. Ethereum is striving to catch up, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently at 0.025. We believe that digital assets still have further room to rise, especially against the backdrop of Coinbase's formal inclusion in the S&P 500 Index on May 19th. Historical experience shows that index inclusions usually bring short-term catalyst effects as passive funds need to adjust their allocations to better track the benchmark index.