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Fed Meeting Minutes: Trade Policy Had a Larger Drag on Economic Activity Than Anticipated

1 days ago

May 29th: In the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, it was mentioned that the staff's forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 was lower than that at the March meeting. This was because the announced trade policies indicated that actual economic activity would be more severely restricted compared to the policy assumed by the staff in their earlier forecast. It was also expected that these trade policies would lead to slower productivity growth, thereby reducing potential GDP growth in the coming years. Due to the anticipated earlier onset of the drag on demand and a greater response than supply, the output gap was expected to expand significantly during the forecast period. The labor market was expected to weaken significantly, with the unemployment rate forecasted to be above the staff's estimate of the natural rate of unemployment by the end of this year and to remain above the natural rate of unemployment until 2027. (FXStreet)
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