Matrixport: US Macro Data Weakness May Trigger Market Turbulence, Bitcoin Rally Hard to Sustain

On June 6th, Matrixport released a weekly report indicating that the upward momentum of Bitcoin is waning and cracks are starting to emerge in the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop. Two crucial economic indicators have recently dropped to multi-month lows. However, most investors' attention is still concentrated on ETE fund flows. In fact, funding dynamics, stablecoin activities, and forward-looking data all suggest that the market may be undergoing a more substantial shift. As U.S. macroeconomic data begins to show signs of softening, we may be entering a period of uncertainty. The recent strong performance in demand is likely due to the market's accelerated execution of orders in anticipation of Trump's tariff policy. But this activity seems to be normalizing. Policymakers may be worried that the tariff policy will reignite inflationary pressures, so they are maintaining caution and are reluctant to prematurely ease policies. We have previously pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks above $84,500, it will confirm its bullish trend. Considering the potential uncertainty in the market during the summer, we advised traders to take profits moderately in last week's report. Despite the recent price softening, our trend model still maintains a bullish stance. The model will only turn bearish if Bitcoin falls below $96,719. This level is still intact but is indeed getting close to being touched. With the momentum of the trend clearly weakening, we have chosen to lock in profits early. As early signs of economic data weakness gradually emerge, we may be entering a two-month period of economic turmoil. In such a market environment, Bitcoin is unlikely to maintain its upward trend continuously, especially when the Fed is not yet ready to cut rates and inflation expectations remain high.