Goldman Sachs: The Bank of Japan Will Stay Put, Next Rate Hike Expected in January Next Year

BlockBeats has reported that on June 17th, Goldman Sachs predicted that since the monetary policy meeting in April, economic activities and price indicators have continuously shown signs of a strengthening virtuous cycle in Japan's domestic market. Nevertheless, the impact of tariff hikes may become a reality in the future. From a risk management perspective, in the face of high uncertainty, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged in June while maintaining its gradual rate hike stance. Goldman Sachs estimates that the next policy rate hike will take place in January 2026. Regarding the Bank of Japan's mid-term review of its current Japanese government bond (JGB) purchase reduction plan (ending in March 2026), it is expected that the existing plan will remain unchanged. After that, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to continue to scale back bond purchases over a one-year period, although at a slower pace, ultimately reducing to approximately 2 trillion yen per month. This is in line with the range of forward-looking surveys conducted among market participants by the Bank of Japan and is equivalent to the level seen before the start of QQE. (Jin10)