HTX DeepThink: Fiscal Expansion and Tariff Postponement Drive BTC and ETH Higher, Short-term Still in Macro Risk Window

On July 10th, HTX Researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) made a post stating that the United States announced the further delay of the new tariffs that were originally scheduled to come into effect on August 1st. Along with strong non-farm data and increased fiscal spending, Bitcoin continued to reach new highs this morning. The ETH ETF witnessed a record single-day inflow of funds during this quarter. Fundstrat's BMNR raised an additional $250 million and significantly increased its ETH holdings, resulting in a more than 30-times surge in its price. Although strong employment data reduced the market's expectation of a July rate cut to approximately 5%, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed widening divisions among officials, leaving the policy direction highly uncertain. This week's earnings season and the CPI on July 15th will be the next crucial milestones. In terms of on-chain data, the CEX BTC reserves dropped to around 2.4 million coins, accounting for less than 11% of the circulation. The BTC options open interest on Deribit exceeded $40 billion, with the largest pain point at $102,000. The ETH options OI exceeded $20 billion, with the maximum pain point at $2,200, indicating a cautiously optimistic market structure. Chloe stated that in the short term, both BTC and SPX are expected to maintain their strength. However, if BTC falls below $102,000 or ETH drops below $2,200, triggering "pain point" level liquidation risks, attention should be focused on geopolitical and policy variables.