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Capital Economics: Market Overestimating Fed Rate Cut Prospects, US Short-Term Rates Face Upside Risk

2 hours ago

On August 20th, Kevin Thozet, a member of the TCW Group Macro Investment Committee, stated in a report that there are upward risks to the US short-term interest rate, and the market is overly confident about the prospects of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The US money market has already priced in at least two interest rate cuts this year, which reflects the market's expectation that signs of a further slowdown in the US economy and inflation will emerge. Thozet said: "Considering the resilience of the US economy, policy uncertainty, and the persistence of inflation pressure, we believe this expectation is too high." The trend of long-term US Treasury bond yields is more balanced. The current 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.300% is expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 50 basis points above and below the current level. (FXStreet)
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