Opinion: ETH Transaction Share Reaches This Cycle's Peak, ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Still Undervalued

August 24th. In a post, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the transaction platform traffic share of ETH is calculated by taking the ratio of the USD value of ETH and BTC flowing in and out of all trading platforms, which represents the percentage of ETH. This is also a key indicator for measuring which of the two mainstream crypto assets, ETH or BTC, is receiving more attention or support from funds. On August 15th, ETH's traffic share reached as high as 48% (as indicated by the red curve in the chart), marking the highest point in this cycle so far. This ratio means that nearly half of the funds flowing in and out of the trading platforms are in ETH, almost on an equal footing with BTC, indirectly confirming the current market's high interest in ETH. If we compare nearly 10 years of this data with the ETH/BTC exchange rate curve (as shown by the blue curve in the chart), we can observe that the red and blue lines are highly synchronized. The logic is: when more funds begin to focus on ETH, the exchange rate of ETH will strengthen, indicating that ETH will start to outperform BTC. The calculated historical average of ETH traffic share is 26% (represented by the green line in the chart). By considering the point where the red curve starts to break above the green line as the starting point, it means that when the traffic share curve is about to exceed the historical average, it indicates that the exchange rate of ETH is about to start strengthening. For instance, on September 2nd, 2020, the ETH traffic share was 28%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate was 0.038. Subsequently, the traffic share continued to rise to 49.5%, and the exchange rate also rose synchronously to 0.086. In this cycle, after reaching the bottom, the ETH traffic share broke the historical average again on May 17th, 2025, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 0.024. Subsequently, with a large influx of traditional capital, the ETH traffic share continued to rise and reached a peak of 48% on August 15th. The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is only around 0.04, which is still far from the peak of 0.08 in 2021. Therefore, it seems that the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still undervalued. As long as the interest from funds is maintained, theoretically, the current exchange rate still has room to rise. This information is shared for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.