Bitunix Analyst: US Inflation and Job Correction Data Interweaved, Market Focused on CPI, PPI Impact on Rate Cut Outlook

September 10: The United States is set to release the August PPI. Market expectations suggest that the annual growth rate will remain at 3.3%. Subsequently, on September 11, the CPI is anticipated to rise to an annual growth rate of 2.9%. Although it still exceeds the Fed's 2% target, investors hold the view that the Fed no longer deems "targeting 2%" as a prerequisite for rate cuts. On the other hand, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has made a significant downward revision to the total nonfarm payroll employment from March 2024 to March 2025 by 911,000, which is the largest revision since 2000. This revision is interpreted by the market as providing legitimacy for the Fed to commence rate cuts. In terms of the macroeconomic front, data falling within the "2.7%–2.9%" range is most beneficial for the stock market. This range can help avoid recession concerns and also prevent the triggering of fears related to runaway inflation. However, if the CPI or PPI exceeds expectations on the upside, it may disrupt the market's confident bet on a September rate cut, and the US dollar will face upward pressure. In the crypto market, BTC is focused on the liquidity zone between $108,500 and $109,000. Resistance above is at $113,500 to $114,000. ETH remains above the $4,250 to $4,300 support zone, with resistance above at $4,480 to $4,500. Bitunix analyst's recommendation: The inflation and employment revision data are intricately intertwined. In the short term, market sentiment still leans towards "bullish rate cut trades." If the data remains within a moderate range, risk assets have room for a rebound. However, if the inflation data exceeds expectations, a strengthening US dollar may suppress BTC and ETH. Special attention should be paid to the key supports at BTC $108,800 and ETH $4,250.