Next Week Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Cycle Restart Imminent, Dot Plot to Become Market's New Game Changer

September 13th. During the past week, a moderate CPI and PPI inflation report, along with a significant increase in initial jobless claims, set the stage for the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points during the September meeting. Worries about the labor market and prices led to a new low in the U.S. consumer confidence index since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month. The Fed will hold its policy meeting next week. A 25-basis-point rate cut by itself is not likely to cause market volatility. If this is the case, market participants may quickly shift their attention to the Fed Chair Powell's press conference and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), especially the new "dot plot." Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time): Wednesday 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision; Thursday 2:00, the Fed FOMC announces its rate decision and economic projections summary; Thursday 2:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; Thursday 19:00, the Bank of England announces its rate decision and meeting minutes; Friday TBD, the Bank of Japan announces its rate decision; Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda holds a monetary policy press conference.