CPI Showdown: December Inflation May See "Reflationary Rebound," Extreme Value Risk Alert
January 12 — Markets widely expect U.S. December CPI to post a temporary rebound (data out Tuesday at 21:30 ET). The uptick is mainly driven by statistical adjustments from the Labor Department’s survey normalization, not necessarily a sign of structural inflation deterioration.
November’s nonfarm payrolls and CPI were released in close proximity. Payrolls showed the U.S. labor market continuing to cool: the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% (4.573% before rounding, the highest in nearly four years). However, the data’s reliability has been questioned due to lingering effects of the government shutdown, failing to significantly boost market bets on an early Federal Reserve rate cut.
Interest rate futures point to broad expectations the Fed will hold rates steady at its January meeting. The first rate cut is seen in March, April, or June—but no timeline has a consensus pricing above 50%, reflecting high uncertainty in the policy path.
Mainstream CPI forecasts for December:
- Hea
3 minutes ago
「Strategy Counterparty Liquidation」 Long Position Breakeven Closeout After Drawdown, Temporary Position Size Reduced by Approximately $80 Million
On January 12, Hyperinsight data shows that after a short-term BTC price decline, the "Strategy Counterparty" whale address (0x94d) saw all long positions across 7 major coins drop below their average entry prices.
Subsequently, the address closed all long positions in XRP and SOL, while gradually reducing holdings in other assets. To date, it has liquidated over $80 million in a short period, slashing its total holdings from $351 million to $270 million.
The address started accumulating positions in December last year with an initial $20 million account size, then gradually added short positions in major coins like BTC and ETH. Since its strategy directly contrasts MicroStrategy’s continuous BTC accumulation, the market views it as a clear on-chain counterpart.
Its current key holdings are:
- BTC 20x long: 1,712 coins, holding value $160 million; current loss $260,000; current price $91,000; liquidation price $75,000.
- ETH 20x long: 29,000 coins, holding value $90 millio
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Affected by the short-term pullback of BTC, the leading bullish positions, led by the "BTC OG Insider Whale," have once again gone underwater
On January 12, per data from the Coinbob Popular Address Monitor (link: https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN):
- The "BTC OG Insider Whale" has shifted from profitable to unprofitable, now holding an overall unrealized loss of ~$2 million. Its only profitable position is a SOL long with a floating profit of ~$5.04 million, average entry price of $130, and position size of ~$71.6 million. Total position size: ~$795 million; remains the largest on-chain long holder for ETH and SOL.
- Simultaneously, the largest on-chain BTC long whale ("Strategy Nemesis") is now in unrealized loss. It opened a BTC long around $90,600 at ~4 a.m. today and has since added to the position, pushing current size to $310 million—making it the second-largest on-chain long whale for mainstream coins (trailing only the "BTC OG Insider Whale").
- The second-largest on-chain ETH long whale ("CZ Nemesis") has seen its unrealized loss widen to $14.2 million. Current ETH position size: ~$170 million; average entry p
3 minutes ago
「Strategy Counterparty Liquidation」 Closing SOL Long Position, Profiting $199,000
January 12
Per monitoring from HyperInsight (via Telegram @HyperInsight), Strategy—dubbed the "exchange nemesis" and the former Hyperliquid BTC whale address 0x94d37—closed a $33.46 million SOL long position at 17:02, netting $199,000 in profit. The address currently holds an unrealized loss of $626,000.
While Strategy has been steadily growing its BTC holdings, this address has opened short positions on mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. At one point, it held a $120 million position and briefly became Hyperliquid’s largest BTC short.
3 minutes ago
After a $450K "Rug Pull," the "Whale" Reopens 10x HYPE Long Position
On January 12, monitoring data from HyperInsight (via the Telegram channel https://t.me/HyperInsight) reveals that the crypto address tied to Huang Licheng—commonly known as "Brother Ma Ji"—has made the following moves:
15 hours ago, the address closed a long position in HYPE, incurring an approximate loss of $450,000. Later the same day, it opened a 10x leveraged long position for 21,888.88 HYPE, which currently shows a floating loss of $1,300.
Current open positions:
- 25x leveraged long position: 10,900 ETH (liquidation price: $3,001.40; floating loss: $150,000)
- 10x leveraged long position: 1,688.88 ZEC (floating loss: $8,000)
- 10x leveraged long position: 21,888.88 HYPE (floating loss: $1,300)
3 minutes ago