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Analysis: This cycle has come close to the bull/bear boundary three times but has never dropped below it. The current fair price of BTC is $97,000.

2 days ago

On October 19th, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the fair price of Bitcoin is calculated based on the historical cumulative average of MVRV. If the market valuation level (MVRV) is at the historical average, then the price of BTC should be around this level. Therefore, the fair price is considered a "mean-reverting center." Over the past 10 years, in the three cycles of BTC, the fair price (blue line) has almost served as the boundary of the bull-bear cycle. After the bull market starts, BTC is unlikely to fall below the blue line even in the case of a pullback; whenever the price reverts, it will trigger strong buying pressure. In this current cycle, BTC has been trading above the fair price for nearly 2 years. There have been 3 times when it came very close to the blue line: the "good news landing is bad news" after the ETF approval; the unraveling of the yen carry trade on August 24; and the tariff crisis on April 25. However, it has never fallen below the fair price. Under the bull market foundation, BTC returning to the fair price is the best buying point. Today, the blue line is positioned at $97,000. If traders believe that the bull market foundation is still intact, then buying when BTC is close to $97,000 would be highly cost-effective. If users believe that the market has turned bearish, they can continue to wait for a deeper bearish moment, perhaps an opportunity to pick up cheap chips below $55,000. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not investment advice.

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