Opinion: Federal Reserve Independence Hit by Trump's "Combo Move," But President's Speech Impact Limited

On November 5th, under nearly a year of continuous attacks by President Trump, the Federal Reserve is under significant pressure. Facing President Trump's insults and threats to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, continuous efforts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, and explicit requests to lower interest rates to reduce government debt costs, the Federal Reserve is also facing accusations of overstepping by Treasury Secretary Bezent. However, regardless of how anxious economists are about the threats to the Federal Reserve, the financial markets remained calm throughout the year 2025. Scholar Francesco Bianchi updated his research findings, showing that Trump's inappropriate comments on the Fed during his first term via social media had led to a statistically significant decrease in market expectations for the federal funds rate. The situation in 2025 is consistent with this, indicating that the market believes Trump's threats are "effective," and the Fed will respond with rate cuts. However, in the long run, the President's rhetoric has limited impact, and there is no evidence that the "bond vigilantes" will restrict presidential action by raising inflation expectations ( "Bond vigilantes" refer to investors who sell bonds to raise yields and force government policy adjustments). Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner pointed out that the financial markets are almost unconcerned that Trump's actions will lead to a mid-term increase in inflation. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also suggested that complaints about "Fed overreach" are "not even in the top 100 issues facing the United States."