Goldman Sachs: Impact of Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs on Overall Trade Situation Limited

On November 6th, Goldman Sachs pointed out that during the oral argument stage, several justices of the US Supreme Court questioned former President Trump's utilization of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This indicates that the Supreme Court is becoming more likely to rule that the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. The prediction market now holds that the likelihood of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs has decreased by approximately 10 percentage points. The final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the government may require several months to refund the approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs that were collected by then. However, the government is likely to seek alternative legal bases to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning that the overall trade impact will remain restricted. Any tariff reduction measures are likely to only apply to smaller trading partners, and there are no expected significant changes for major economies such as the European Union. Nevertheless, the handling of refunds and temporary tariff gaps may trigger short-term market fluctuations. (Golden Finance)