HTX DeepThink: US Government Shutdown Continues to Disrupt Data Outlook, Fed Shifts Focus to Post-Market Potential QE

November 10th. The columnist of HTX DeepThink and the researcher of HTX Research, Chloe, pointed out that the U.S. government shutdown has been ongoing for more than a month. With no substantial progress in budget negotiations, official economic data is lacking, and the market can only rely on private sector indicators to assess the economic trend. According to ADP data, in October, private sector job growth slowed to 42,000, and wage growth remained at 4.5%, indicating a significant cooling of the labor market. The strengthening U.S. dollar led to a decline of about 1.5% in gold for the week, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in December dropped to around 71%. On-chain data shows that after whales reduced their holdings at a high level, they began to accumulate again at a lower level, and institutional buying continued through OTC. Stablecoin inflows reached $2.8 billion, but the growth rate slowed down, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude among investors. The Federal Reserve announced that it would end its balance sheet reduction (QT) starting in December and reinvest MBS funds into short-term Treasuries, indicating an increase in liquidity. Market expectations suggest that if the government shutdown ends and economic data recovers, the Fed may consider restarting quantitative easing (QE) early next year to address the risks of weak U.S. bond demand and high yields. Analysts believe that the subsequent policy direction will depend on the outcome of fiscal negotiations and the December FOMC meeting.