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After the US Government Shutdown, a Wave of "Low-Quality" Data Could Hit the Market

3 hours ago

On November 11th, the direction of the U.S. government shutdown is becoming evident, suggesting that Wall Street is likely to soon witness a wave of key economic reports that have been postponed for more than a month. The first to come into view will be the September employment data. Morgan Stanley economists project that the September employment report could potentially be released as early as this Friday, yet it is more inclined to be at the start of next week.


In addition, in the most unfavorable situation, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index might not be released at all. The PCE Price Index is the Fed's preferred inflation metric.


Another possibility is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will try to extrapolate the monthly inflation trend. Nevertheless, economists assert that the quality of the report will be significantly degraded, and the timing of its release may be so delayed as to be almost of no significance.


The postponed release of the September employment report and the absence of the October inflation report will leave the Fed with an insufficient decision-making basis when deliberating whether to cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting. (Jin10)

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