QCP: Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Corporate Earnings Resilience Expected to Support Risk Assets and Bitcoin Through Year-End

On November 12th, QCP issued its daily market observation which stated: The trend of Bitcoin remains in line with the overall news-driven risk sentiment. After a decline during the US session, it stabilized around $103,000 during the Asian session. Although the US government shutdown is still ongoing, there is now a more clear path to resolution. The pullback in yesterday's ADP data has reactivated the narrative of a weakening labor market, a signal that is of particular concern leading up to the December FOMC meeting (December 9-10), which is awkwardly timed with the uncertainty still surrounding the official BLS data release. The Senate has approved a "stopgap funding bill" to extend government funding until January 30th of the next year, providing a short-term fix for the fiscal issue. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Representatives and, if passed, will be sent to the White House for signing. While this measure can avoid an administrative shutdown during the holiday period, it also lays the groundwork for another deadlock early next year. This is a classic case of a "kick the can" policy: temporarily removing tail risks but failing to address structural issues. The market will continue to be highly sensitive to procedural obstacles or delays in the House vote. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 96% probability that the government shutdown will end between November 12th and 15th. The uncertainty of the government shutdown, tariff frictions, credit market volatility, and soft economic data mean that temporary turbulence may still occur in the fourth quarter. However, the potential for Fed rate cuts and corporate earnings resilience are expected to support risk assets and Bitcoin before the end of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, the combination of monetary and fiscal policies remains supportive, providing continued favorable conditions for economic growth.