HTX DeepThink: Rate Cut Expectation Cools Off as Liquidity Tightening Suppresses Crypto Asset Risk Appetite

November 17th. Chloe, who is a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out in her latest analysis that following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, a large number of delayed economic data will soon be released in a concentrated manner. The market is concerned that this will weaken the foundation for a rate cut in December. Several Federal Reserve voting members have also signaled a "wait-and-see" attitude, significantly cooling down rate cut expectations. Against the backdrop of rate reassessment and liquidity tightening, the risk appetite for crypto assets continues to decline. Bitcoin recently dropped to $95,885, and the overall market value has retracted by more than $1 trillion since October. HTX Research stated that high real interest rates, the near depletion of reverse repo balances, and elevated Treasury cash levels continue to create a tight liquidity environment. Option data shows that investors are increasing their defensive positions. On Deribit, the open interest of high-strike put options is significant. The largest pain point is around $104,000, and the put/call ratio is 0.61. Long-term holders have also sold more than 810,000 bitcoins during the pullback. HTX DeepThink believes that future speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the FOMC minutes will guide expectations. In the short term, in the face of weakened rate cut expectations and the tight liquidity effect, Bitcoin may remain in the $95,000 to $100,000 range. The medium to long-term trend still depends on fiscal spending, regulatory developments, and the release of liquidity.