Berenstein: Recent Bitcoin Sell-Off Mainly Stemmed from Investors' Concerns About the Four-Year Cycle Peak

On November 17th, as reported by The Block, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a decline of approximately 25% since reaching a new all-time high of around $126,000 on October 6th. According to analysts at the research and brokerage firm Bernstein, this indicates a short-term pullback rather than the onset of a major downtrend. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that this decline is a reflection of investors' anxiety regarding the historical four-year cycle pattern, which has witnessed peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Many investors sold off during the market softness in the fourth quarter, believing that 2025 would witness a repeat, thereby somewhat creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, they believe that the current fundamentals are stronger, suggesting that this is more likely a "relatively modest pullback" forming a new local bottom rather than the 60% to 70% drops witnessed in historical cycles - due to significant absorption by long-term holder supply. The analysis points out that over the past six months, investors holding for at least a year have sold about 340,000 BTC (approximately $38 billion), while approximately $34 billion has flowed into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, absorbing a significant portion of this selling pressure. Looking ahead, the analysts believe that the market is "not at a cycle peak" but rather part of a multi-year trend characterized by institutional participation and periodic moderate pullbacks. They are monitoring whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000 - a level witnessed after last year's U.S. presidential election - and believe that the current pullback could present an attractive entry opportunity for digital assets and related equities.