Analyst: Currently, nearly 40% of BTC's chips are in a loss state, reaching the initial target level of the first round of decline in multiple previous bear market cycles

On November 18th, the on-chain data analyst Murphy announced on social media that the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin's Profitable Supply in Percentage (PSIP) has dropped below 70%. This indicates that after this round of decline, nearly 30% of the entire chain's chips are currently at a loss. If we exclude Bitcoin that has not been in motion for a long time, lost coins, and similar addresses like Satoshi's, this percentage is expected to reach over 40%. Murphy further pointed out that in the first round of decline from the bull market to the bear market over the past 10 years, PSIP has always reached its current position. Subsequently, there has been a rebound after extreme emotional pressure, as seen in 2018 and 2020. Especially in 2020, it was further aggravated by the March 519 Black Swan event. However, even if a rebound occurs, it may not be able to resume an upward trend because there are too many chips in the market waiting to exit during the rebound.