Before the release of the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data, the probability of a 25 basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is currently at 27.8%.

This week, on Wednesday, December 8, the Federal Reserve will release its December interest rate decision. Currently, Polymarket pegs the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December at 93% — marking a high level of market consensus for a cut this month. Additionally, the Fed will announce its January interest rate decision on January 28 next year. As of press time, the chance of **no rate cut** in January has risen to 68%, while the probability of a cut stands at just 27%.

As of Dec. 8, per HyperInsight monitoring, two addresses linked to Abraxas Capital (0x5b5, 0xb83) have consistently closed ~$10.26M worth of ETH short positions over the past two days. ### Key Position Details: - Current size: ~$51.57M - Average entry price: $3,522 - Unrealized profit: $6.68M (130% return) - Realized profits from funding rate settlements: $13.61M Per ongoing tracking, Abraxas Capital has been cutting its ETH short position since early November—shrinking from $267M to $51.57M, totaling $217M in closures. A portion of the proceeds was used to boost HYPE spot holdings, with the current position standing at ~$53.84M. Additionally, the two addresses have closed most of their 22 prior short positions, now holding only 3 positions above $200k: ETH shorts, HYPE shorts, and FARTCOIN shorts. Previously, they were Hyperliquid’s largest short whale.

On December 8, the election for the 8th Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) concluded, with Legislative Council member John Wu securing re-election with 1,311 votes. Wu noted, “This election was highly competitive, and I’m deeply honored to be re-elected. Over the next four years, I’ll continue advancing my policy agenda, driving growth in Hong Kong’s finance and technology sectors—especially Web3, artificial intelligence, and related industries—to create new economic growth engines for the region.”

Dec. 8 — While another Federal Reserve rate cut is all but certain, the key question is how Chair Jerome Powell will frame the outlook for further monetary easing next month. With Fed policymakers split increasingly between hawks and doves, Powell faces a tricky balancing act at this week’s central bank meeting. Wall Street is betting on a “hawkish rate cut”: after delivering this month’s dovish-aligned cut, Powell may refrain from signaling a January rate reduction to placate the Fed’s hawkish wing. In a report Friday, a Bank of America analyst noted: “Powell is confronting the most divided FOMC in recent years. As such, we expect he’ll again balance the expected rate cut with a hawkish tone at the press conference, as he did in October.” But the Fed chair has repeatedly stressed policymakers have no preset policy path — rate moves will hinge on incoming data. For that reason, BofA is doubtful Powell can pull off the “hawkish rate cut” easily, particularly given the slew of market-

On December 8, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan tweeted that Harvard University drastically expanded its Bitcoin holdings in Q3—boosting them from $117 million to $443 million—while also increasing its gold ETF allocation from $102 million to $235 million. Harvard is placing bets on currency devaluation trades and favors Bitcoin over gold with a 2:1 allocation ratio.