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On March 26, the Financial Times reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has discussed strengthening the Treasury’s oversight of the Federal Reserve by drawing on elements of the Bank of England’s model—a move that would reshape the relationship between the Fed and the U.S. government. According to senior financial industry executives with knowledge of the matter, Yellen has told market participants she admires the 1997 reforms the UK government implemented, when the Bank of England was granted operational independence to set monetary policy. While both central banks formally maintain independence from their respective governments, the Fed has greater autonomy in how it pursues Congress’s mandates of price stability and full employment, as well as how it responds to financial instability. Yellen has publicly stated the Fed should undergo reform while preserving the independence of its monetary policy. Last year, she published a 6,000-word article in *The International

March 26 (CCTV News) — Delayed U.S.-Iran tensions have introduced fresh downside risks to the U.S. economy, prompting several institutions to raise their recession probability forecasts for the country, per recent reports. U.S. sources on March 25 highlighted the following: - Moody’s Analytics’ model now pegs the 12-month recession odds at 48.6% (up from a typical ~20%); - Goldman Sachs has lifted its forecast to 30%; - Wilmington Trust predicts a 45% chance; - EY-Parthenon forecasts 40%. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi noted the recession risk is “uncomfortably high and still rising,” framing an economic downturn as a real threat. He added: “The U.S. economy will tip into recession if current high oil prices persist through late May to the end of Q2.”

March 26 – Morgan Stanley interest rate strategists say this month’s sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has the hallmarks of a forced unwinding of positions in two-year notes, as traders ditch bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and start pricing in hikes—pushing the two-year yield sharply higher. Led by Eli Carter, the strategists noted in a Wednesday report that since the U.S. struck Iran on Feb. 28, trading data from CME Group-owned BrokerTec Inc. shows “U.S. Treasury market liquidity has fallen sharply, especially at the front end.” Longer-dated bonds, like the 10-year note, have stayed relatively stable, they added. “Wider bid-ask spreads typically crimp trading, so the fact volumes are still recovering reflects many trades are driven by necessity, not choice,” the strategists said. Since the conflict began, the two-year Treasury yield has climbed ~50 basis points to 3.87%, but Morgan Stanley’s analysis shows the sell-off has been “exacerbated by position unwinding and worsening liqu

March 26 — Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh aims to significantly shrink the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, but a top financial economist says the task may take more than one term to complete. Stanford Graduate School of Business professor Darrell Duffie, a longstanding Fed advisor, notes in a new paper that substantial cuts to the Fed’s financial market footprint without undue stress will require reforms—including an overhaul of bank liquidity requirements and a redesign of the payment system. Once confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Warsh could implement some reforms immediately if he has support from his Fed colleagues. Duffie adds other reforms may take up to five years, meaning the work would extend beyond Warsh’s four-year term as chair. (FXStreet)