Trader Anticipates Over 50% Probability of Fed Rate Cut in December

November 21: During a period of nearly two hours, several Federal Reserve officials made dovish remarks collectively. Subsequently, U.S. short-term interest rate futures indicated an increase in market expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a December rate cut is now 54%. Fed Governor Milan: If my vote were a decisive one, I would vote in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut. He believes that CPI data will be released after the next FOMC meeting. New York Fed President Williams: Given that the current policy stance is obviously tight, the Fed still has room to cut rates in the short term. The progress of inflation remains muted, but it is expected to reach the 2% target by 2027. Fed Vice Chair: AI-related stock gains are benefiting from actual earnings, which is different from the internet bubble period. Fed's Collins: Over time, further rate cuts are anticipated. Having a diverse perspective within the Fed is beneficial.

On November 21st, as per the monitoring of LookOnChain, Arthur Hayes deposited 7.66 million BIO into Binance, which is approximately worth $460,000. These BIO tokens were withdrawn from Binance three months ago when the price of BIO was $0.144. Considering the current price, Arthur Hayes has incurred a loss of $640,000 in this investment, representing a loss of 58%.

On November 21, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated: In contrast to the Internet bubble era, the surge in AI-related stocks is primarily due to AI companies actually generating real earnings. The current market differences from the Internet bubble era make it less likely for us to witness a recurrence of the late 1990s. It is still too early to make a judgment on how AI will impact the labor market, inflation, and monetary policy.

On November 21st, Bitmine, Ethereum's first institutional holder, announced the financial performance of the fourth quarter and the full year ending on August 31, 2025. The full-year net revenue for the 2025 fiscal year was $328,161,370, with fully diluted earnings per share of $13.39. BitMine declared an annual dividend of $0.01 per BMNR share. Bitmine has selected three leading staking service providers for a pilot project to test their various functions while advancing and expanding its in-house developed dedicated staking infrastructure, the Manufactured American Validator Network (MAVAN). The staking feature is anticipated to be officially launched in the first quarter of 2026. Bitmine will hold its annual shareholders' meeting on January 15, 2026, at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas.

November 21st. The Solana NFT marketplace Tensor Foundation announced half an hour ago that it had acquired Tensor Marketplace and the Tensorians NFT series from Tensor Labs. The foundation will take ownership and operate the official marketplace user interface built on Tensor Protocols. 100% of the Tensor Marketplace fees will now go to the TNSR treasury (previously 50%), and all unreleased tokens belonging to Labs and founders (21.6% of the supply) will be burned today. Tokens previously locked by the founders will be relocked for an additional 3 years. SolanaFloor stated that two days prior to this announcement, the TNSR token price surged, raising questions about potential insider trading.

On November 21, Fed's Collins said: It is anticipated that interest rates will be reduced further in the coming days. Maintaining a diversified perspective on the Fed is beneficial. (Xinhua Finance)