Matrixport: Bitcoin Volatility Skew and Skewness Display, Market Risk-off Sentiment Heating Up

On February 11th, Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 permissionless perpetual contract market reported a daily trading volume of $5.2 billion on February 5th—its highest single-day record since the protocol launched in October 2025. As the leading market maker on HIP-3, TradeXYZ holds nearly 90% of total trading volume via its perpetual contracts across precious metals, stock indices, and individual stocks. TradeXYZ’s silver perpetual contract alone generated $4.09 billion in volume on February 5th, accounting for roughly 68% of that day’s total HIP-3 activity. This surge is tied to the commodity’s price volatility, which has drawn traders seeking alternatives to crypto assets.

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington cut his Coinbase price target to $290 from $399 on Feb. 11, ahead of the crypto exchange’s Q4 earnings report due this Thursday. Worthington noted he’s still bullish on the stock— the revised target implies 75% upside from Coinbase’s current $165.5 share price. He forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $7.34 billion, down from Q3’s $8.01 billion, marking a sharp sequential decline driven by lower trading volume, softer crypto prices, and slower USDC stablecoin balance growth. Worthington projects Q4 spot crypto trading volume at $2.63 trillion. He also flagged a drop in circulating USDC and sees stablecoin-related revenue at $3.12 billion. Those headwinds are partially offset by revenue from Deribit— the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired last August— which contributed to full-quarter results. Including Deribit, JPMorgan’s model forecasts total trading revenue of $10.6 billion— with Deribit contributing ~$1.17 billion from an estimated $586 bi

On February 11, CryptoOnchain said in a social media post that Ethereum’s (ETH) 14-day moving average of token transfers spiked sharply to 2.75 million when ETH prices dipped into the $2,000 range—hitting the highest level since August 2025. This surge signals panic selling and a washout of weak hands. Historical data shows such extreme activity often indicates seller exhaustion and could potentially form a local bottom. Token Transfers (14-day moving average) is an on-chain metric used to track the trend and intensity of token transfer activity on the Ethereum (or relevant blockchain) network. It typically refers to the simple moving average of total transfer transactions for ERC-20 and other standard tokens on the network over the past 14 days.

February 11 – Coinbase has added ETHGas (GWEI) to its listing roadmap, per official sources.

A new Grayscale study released February 11 finds Bitcoin’s long-running “digital gold” narrative is facing headwinds: its recent price moves increasingly mirror high-risk growth assets, not traditional safe-havens. Report author Zach Pandl said Tuesday that while Grayscale still views Bitcoin as a long-term store of value (citing its fixed supply and independence from central banks), recent market performance tells a different story. “Bitcoin’s short-term price trends haven’t tracked gold or other precious metals closely,” Pandl noted, pointing to recent historic gains in gold and silver. The analysis found Bitcoin has grown strongly correlated with software stocks—especially since early 2024—amid a sharp sell-off in the sector driven by fears AI could disrupt or displace many software services. The report links Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to stocks and growth assets to its deeper integration into traditional finance, driven in part by institutional participation, ETF act

On February 11, crypto market research firm Santiment tweeted that Bitcoin has rebounded from last weekend’s dip to $60,000. Social media data analysis shows bearish sentiment in the market still outpaces bullish sentiment. With retail investors largely pessimistic, data indicates average investors remain reluctant to buy at current price levels—while key BTC whales are accumulating calmly with little resistance. Historically, when market panic is high, the probability of a price rebound rises significantly.