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CryptoQuant: The market has entered a phase of structural adjustment, with a high likelihood of continued decline

59 minutes ago

On December 5th, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted that combining Bitcoin on-chain signal indicators, the current market has entered a deep adjustment phase—one that stretched to a year in the previous cycle. Bitcoin’s current maximum retracement from its all-time high sits at -32%, placing it in the intermediate zone between a deep pullback and a market bottom. If macroeconomic conditions and on-chain signals fail to improve, there’s still risk of further downside. In short, the current signal set indicates the market is in a structural adjustment phase: the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric aligns with historical bear market territory, and the -32% retracement has exceeded typical cyclical adjustments. As long as on-chain and macro indicators show no signs of improvement, the likelihood of continued declines remains high. A recovery will take time and require a shift in internal sentiment within the network’s profit-loss structure.
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