Analyst: Bitcoin's "Risk Mitigation Model" Predicts Pullback Risk, Further Downside Potential Still High

December 6th — even as Bitcoin has rebounded recently — CryptoQuant’s Multi-Metric Risk Oscillation Indicator remains near the “high-risk” zone. Historically, this level has signaled a market pullback and lowered the odds of a sustained uptrend. CryptoQuant’s Risk-Aversion Model merges six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market performance — to deliver a data-backed assessment of market vulnerability. When the oscillation indicator nears 60 or enters the high-risk zone, pullback risks stay elevated. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also notes the Profit/Loss Score has fallen to -3, reflecting extremely concentrated losses across Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs). Historically, this level has often aligned with bear market conditions and extended cooling-off periods. Bitcoin’s current 32% drawdown exceeds typical pullback levels in a normal cycle (-20% to -25%) but hasn’t hit the panic selling threshold (-50% to -70%), leaving it in a vulnerable “middle ground.” Adler adds that until macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability metrics improve, the odds of further downside stay high — even if Bitcoin holds steady around $90,000.