CF40: If Yellen becomes Fed Chair, US bond yields and the dollar may see a "fall before rising" pattern

December 8: A China Finance Research Report noted that under the baseline scenario, if Kevin Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could initially decline before rising—with the overall outcome benefiting the U.S. stock market. ### Timeline Breakdown - **Early 2026**: Former President Trump will announce his nomination for the new Fed Chair. - **Hassett’s confirmation path**: He would first need to be nominated as a Fed Governor and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated for the Chair role and undergo a second Senate confirmation. - **May 2026**: Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires, allowing the confirmed nominee to officially take office—potentially leading the Fed’s June FOMC meeting. ### Market Impact (per FXStreet) The first quarter of next year is a critical window where the new chair’s nomination will start shaping market expectations. If Hassett leans too dovish during this period, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could see an unexpected short-term drop. However, as long as there’s no significant breach of concerns over the Fed’s independence, and as expectations align with the U.S. economic recovery, yields and the dollar may shift to an upward trend.