Multiple "Insider" New Accounts Join Forces to Bet That Trump Will Not Declassify UFO Files This Year

December 8 — Prediction market “Will Trump Declassify UFO Files by 2025?” on PolyBeats surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of imminent UFO disclosure. The market’s existence ties to two drivers: Trump’s explicit 2024 campaign pledge to “declassify everything,” and the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)’s mandatory declassification rule for the Department of Defense (DoD). Trading data shows the rally began with trader “ster,” who has consistently bought “Yes” shares since the market launched. Yesterday’s surge was fueled by his market orders during a liquidity crunch, pushing the probability higher. A review of his trade history confirms his strategy aligns with “buy low, sell high” — not insider trading. On the flip side, 6 accounts stood out in the 12 hours after the probability spike. They collectively purchased over 20,000 “No” shares at an average price below $0.20, betting Trump will not declassify the files by 2025. A key commonality: this is their only position on Polymarket. With synchronized timing, pricing, and position size, these 6 accounts suggest another angle for the market shift: they leveraged an AARO website update as a “smokescreen.” Intentionally or passively, they pushed “Yes” probability up to drive “No” prices to a trough, letting them enter positions cheaply. These traders know AARO’s updates fail to meet the market’s strict settlement criteria — so they’re betting on a “No” outcome via reverse arbitrage rooted in information asymmetry.