Key Points of the Federal Reserve Meeting — Vote to Reveal Divisions, Powell May Raise Rate Cut Threshold

### Policy Statement 1. **Barclays Bank**: The statement is expected to take a hawkish tone, indicating a pause in rate cuts for January next year. 2. **JPMorgan Chase**: The statement may see a wording shift to “focus on the magnitude and timing of further adjustments” — a subtle change hinting at a reduced likelihood of future rate cuts in subsequent meetings. 3. **Wells Fargo**: The statement is expected to signal a higher threshold for additional rate cuts, implying “maintaining current interest rates” is the majority of committee members’ current baseline assumption. ### Voting Divisions 1. **BNY Mellon**: The dot plot is likely to confirm recent internal FOMC divisions over policy stance, with expectations of significant divergence among members on 2026 policy direction. 2. **JPMorgan Chase**: This meeting is expected to see at least two dissenting votes against rate cuts (advocating a hold) and one vote for a larger cut. The dot plot may show one additional rate cut each in the next two years. 3. **FP Markets**: Dissenters may take a hawkish stance at this meeting, including Schmid, Goolsbee, Mussalem, and Powell. If a rate cut occurs this week, another cut is expected next year. ### Powell’s Statements 1. **Bank of America**: Powell may avoid clear hawkish guidance, with communication focused on real interest rates or data dependency. 2. **Danske Bank**: Powell is expected to maintain the stance from the October meeting, explicitly pushing back against market expectations of consecutive rate cuts. 3. **Deutsche Bank**: Powell may emphasize the bar for additional rate cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a temporary pause in cuts. 4. **Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder**: Powell may frame the rate cut similarly to his last press conference, warning markets not to assume the Fed will continue cutting rates. 5. **Morgan Stanley**: Powell is expected to suggest the monetary policy adjustment phase has ended, with any future actions tied to assessments at successive meetings and latest data. ### Others 1. **Bank of America**: The Fed is expected to announce it will begin purchasing U.S. Treasury securities (maturities ≤1 year) at a $45 billion monthly pace starting in January, as part of reserve management operations. 2. **Wells Fargo**: No decision on reserve management operations is expected at this meeting, but a launch of the plan is likely to be announced at the March meeting. (Jinshi)