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December 11: The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot shows that among its 19 officials, 6 support holding interest rates steady in December—including 2025 voting members Schmid and Gulsby. Twelve officials back a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, while one (Federal Reserve Governor Milan) favors a 50-basis-point cut, per FXStreet.

FLASH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference in 5 minutes on Dec. 11. 或更紧凑的快讯版： FLASH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell to hold monetary policy press conference in 5 minutes (Dec. 11)

On December 11, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos reported in his latest article that Fed officials cut interest rates for the third straight meeting—but they remain split over whether to prioritize inflation or the labor market. Internal divisions at the Fed are unusually sharp, leading officials to hint at reluctance to keep cutting rates. Recent public comments from Fed policymakers have shown significant splits on the committee, meaning the final call could hinge on Fed Chair Powell’s preferred path. Powell’s term expires next May, so he will only lead three more rate-setting meetings. Persistent price pressures paired with a cooling labor market have put the Fed in an uncomfortable trade-off not seen in decades. During the 1970s stagflation period—when officials faced a similar dilemma—the Fed’s stop-and-start approach allowed high inflation to become entrenched. Jonathan Pingle, UBS’s Chief U.S. Economist, noted: “As rates near neutral, each cut loses more committee support—you

On December 11, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot revealed median projections for the Federal Funds Rate at year-end 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long term: 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.1%, and 3.0% respectively. These match September’s projections (3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.1%, 3.0%), per FXStreet.

On December 11, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot showed the following views among its 19 officials on 2026 interest rate cuts: Seven officials expect no rate cuts, four foresee a cumulative 25 basis-point cut, four anticipate 50 basis points, two forecast 75 basis points, one projects 100 basis points, and one envisions 150 basis points. （注：用词避免重复，符合美国财经快讯简洁、信息聚焦的表达习惯，核心数据清晰呈现）

December 11: Odds of the Fed pausing rate cuts at its January 2025 meeting stand at 78% — up from 70% prior to the latest FOMC decision (FX678)