Before Interest Rate Decision: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time is 89.4%

Xinhua Finance | December 11 — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, while inflation remains slightly elevated.

December 11 — Website monitoring service DownDetector reports that user reports indicate social media platform X is experiencing an outage. (Golden Ten)

December 11: The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot shows that among its 19 officials, 6 support holding interest rates steady in December—including 2025 voting members Schmid and Gulsby. Twelve officials back a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, while one (Federal Reserve Governor Milan) favors a 50-basis-point cut, per FXStreet.

FLASH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference in 5 minutes on Dec. 11. 或更紧凑的快讯版： FLASH: Fed Chair Jerome Powell to hold monetary policy press conference in 5 minutes (Dec. 11)

On December 11, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos reported in his latest article that Fed officials cut interest rates for the third straight meeting—but they remain split over whether to prioritize inflation or the labor market. Internal divisions at the Fed are unusually sharp, leading officials to hint at reluctance to keep cutting rates. Recent public comments from Fed policymakers have shown significant splits on the committee, meaning the final call could hinge on Fed Chair Powell’s preferred path. Powell’s term expires next May, so he will only lead three more rate-setting meetings. Persistent price pressures paired with a cooling labor market have put the Fed in an uncomfortable trade-off not seen in decades. During the 1970s stagflation period—when officials faced a similar dilemma—the Fed’s stop-and-start approach allowed high inflation to become entrenched. Jonathan Pingle, UBS’s Chief U.S. Economist, noted: “As rates near neutral, each cut loses more committee support—you

On December 11, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot revealed median projections for the Federal Funds Rate at year-end 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long term: 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.1%, and 3.0% respectively. These match September’s projections (3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, 3.1%, 3.0%), per FXStreet.