Next Week Macro Outlook: CPI Data Incoming, Potentially Further Confirming the Fed's Rate Cut Cycle

**Next Week’s U.S. Economic & Market Focus (Dec 18-22)** After this week’s Fed signal (more dovish than expected) and lingering AI sector challenges drove mixed U.S. stock/bond trends—with 10-year Treasury yields rising ~5bps over “Fed cut week”—here’s what to watch next week: ### Key Events (EST) | Day | Time | Event Details | |-----------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Monday | 22:30 | Fed Governor Milan delivers a speech | | Monday | 23:30 | FOMC Permanent Voter & NY Fed President John Williams speaks on economic outlook | | Thursday | 01:30 | 2027 FOMC Voter & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on economic outlook | | Thursday | 21:30 | U.S. Nov CPI: Non-seasonally adjusted YoY/core YoY; Seasonally adjusted MoM/core MoM | | Thursday | 21:30 | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Dec 13) | | Friday | 23:00 | U.S. Dec University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final); 1-Year Inflation Expectations (final) | ### Dollar Turning Point: CPI Data Next week’s U.S. CPI release is a make-or-break for the greenback. Current consensus pegs Nov CPI at ~3% YoY (still above the Fed’s 2% target). - **Below expectations**: Reinforces the Fed’s rate-cut cycle rationale → Dollar faces further downside pressure. - **Above expectations**: Could reverse the dollar’s recent trend.