Analyst Preview for Non-Farm Payrolls: Unemployment Rate Could Rise to 4.5%

December 16th — According to a Cointelegraph report, Bitcoin has retraced roughly 30% from its ~$126,000 all-time high and is hovering around the key $85,000 support level. On-chain data shows mid-sized holders and some institutional funds are ramping up accumulation. Glassnode figures indicate addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC (often called mid-tier whales) accumulated ~54,000 BTC over the past week. Their total holdings rose from ~3.521 million BTC to 3.575 million BTC — a pace of accumulation not seen since 2012, signaling clear bottom-fishing amid the sharp pullback. Still, upside potential remains capped by selling pressure from larger holders. Data shows long-term and “OG” whales (holding 10,000+ BTC) have steadily reduced positions over the past two months. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted record institutional buying is being absorbed by long-term holders at a rate unseen in years — a dynamic that could keep suppressing Bitcoin’s price action short-term.

December 16: Per AI Auntie's monitoring, a smart-money address (0xA33...AE12C)—which went long on ETH when it bottomed at $1,729—has begun unwinding positions, opting to dial back leverage and lock in profits. This April 23, the address purchased 19,973 ETH on-chain (worth $34.54 million at the time) and built a leveraged long position of up to 50,000 ETH. Over the past two hours, it sold 9,999.95 ETH at an average price of $2,921.35, netting an $11.92 million profit. Currently, the address has deposited 40,597 WETH into Aave and borrowed $39.05 million.

**Dec. 16 — Predictive market platform predict.fun announced yesterday (Dec. 15) that its official launch would take place today. The team has taken snapshots of addresses belonging to four user groups:** - Addresses that traded a meaningful amount of Meme coins on BNB Chain; - Addresses that engaged in perpetual contract trading on Aster DEX; - Users active on prediction platforms including Polymarket, Limitless, Myriad Markets, and Opinion Labs; - Existing participants of Predict (Blast). **An airdrop eligibility check page will also go live today.** **Background:** As previously reported by BlockBeats, on Dec. 4, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) posted on social media: “Welcome to predict.fun, a new prediction market built on BNB Chain. When users make predictions, their funds won’t sit idle—they’ll generate returns. The predict.fun founder previously worked at Binance (several years ago), and the project is incubated and invested in by YZi Labs.”

On December 16th, per HyperInsight monitoring, ZEC dropped ~5.5% in the short term and fell below $380. The “Largest ZEC Short on Hyperliquid” has flipped from loss to profit, with a current position size of ~$16.5 million, average entry price of $389, and unrealized gain of $250,000 (8%). Among three whales with liquidation prices near $350 today: - Address 0x58e fully closed its position; - Address 0x96e cut losses by ~$1 million; - Address 0x535 has not adjusted its position, with a liquidation price around $348. Additionally, this whale added to its ETH and MON short positions today—now holding the largest short positions for ETH, ZEC, and MON simultaneously. Its main profits stem from ETH shorts: ~$92.45 million position size, average entry $3,377, unrealized gain of $14.33 million (232%). The account’s total short position is ~$118 million. Historical context: This address first opened a ZEC short on October 10th at ~$184, then added to the position to average u

On December 16, crypto asset platform Nexo announced a multi-year partnership with Tennis Australia, officially becoming the official crypto partner of the Australian Open and the "Summer of Tennis" season. The deal covers the Australian Open main tournament, ATP Cup, Adelaide International, Brisbane International, and Hobart International. Under the agreement, the Nexo brand will be featured via the "Nexo Coaches Pod" at the events’ main venues. The 2026 Australian Open is set to kick off on January 12 in Melbourne, with an expected global audience of billions. Nexo noted the partnership will help connect it with global tennis fans and reinforce its brand transformation—shifting from a "crypto lending platform" to a "digital asset wealth platform." This year, Nexo has signed several other sports partnerships: it became the official digital wealth platform of the DP World Tour, and sponsored the Acapulco Open and Mifel Open.

On December 16, data from Coinglass indicates: - If Ethereum (ETH) drops below $2,800, cumulative long liquidation intensity across major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $849 million. - Conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity at these platforms will reach $659 million. **BlockBeats Note**: Liquidation charts do not show the exact number or value of contracts to be liquidated. Instead, the bars represent the relative importance of each liquidation cluster vs. neighboring clusters—i.e., "intensity." Put simply, the charts illustrate how strongly asset prices will react when hitting a specific level: a taller "liquidation bar" means a stronger price response due to a liquidity cascade once that level is breached.