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In Kalshi's "Best AI by End of 2025" prediction market, Gemini has all but secured victory

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On December 17th, PolyBeats monitoring (via https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot) shows that in Kalshi’s prediction market “What is the best AI by the end of 2025,” Google’s Gemini now holds a 94% win probability—up from 30% at the start of this year. OpenAI’s ChatGPT trails at 5% (down from 41% early 2024), while xAI’s Grok sits at 1% (down from 14% early 2024). Trading volume for this market has reached $14.71 million, with final settlement tied to LM Arena leaderboard data. Additionally, Google’s upcoming Gemini model release is imminent, with Google insider NCW again confirming the date as December 17th today. NCW previously accurately pinned the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch to the second half of December, netting nearly $4,000 in profits—all 4 of their historical trades relate to Gemini product release date propositions. Recently, NCW set December 17th as the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch date: they bought “No” on the 16th at an average 80 cents, and “Yes” on the 17th at 78 cents—both positions are currently profitable.
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Binance Listing Agent Blacklist: Web3Port Partner and Former Pantera Capital Member Among Those Listed

On December 17, Binance released a partial blacklist of "Listing Agents" today, including BitABC, Central Research, May/Dannie, Andrew Lee, Suki Yang, Fiona Lee, and Kenny Z. Binance noted the list is not exhaustive and advised against trusting any "Listing Agent." Below is information on the above individuals and entities sourced from public records: - **BitABC**: A crypto advisory, incubation, and project acceleration firm offering services like project promotion, community building, liquidity incentives, and market consulting. It claims to help early-stage crypto projects gain visibility and traction on trading platforms. - **May/Dannie**: A key figure linked to Web3Port—an improper market maker previously flagged by Binance. May Liu and her team built a "Binance Brokerage Pipeline" spanning Spark Digital Capital → Web3Port → Whisper. Spark operates under the guise of a VC but actually runs market outsourcing and financial advisory (FA) businesses, securing free tokens by lever

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Tencent Cloud Partners with Thailand's Largest Cryptocurrency Exchange Bitkub

On Dec. 17, Tencent Cloud—Tencent’s cloud computing arm—announced a strategic partnership with Bitkub, Thailand’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, per Reuters. Bitkub plans to migrate and upgrade its existing products leveraging Tencent Cloud’s infrastructure, database technology, and AI capabilities.

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Dune Releases Prediction Market Liquidity Report: Prediction Markets Accelerating into Mainstream Finance. Opinion Sets a Prime Example of a Macro Prediction Market, with Trading Volume Surpassing $6.4 Billion within 50 Days

On December 17th, Dune released an **Industry Report on Forecast Markets** in collaboration with Keyrock, KPMG, and other institutions. The report highlights that the **macro-focused forecast market**—tied to traditional institutions—is rapidly gaining traction. In this trend, the Opinion-led forecast market is converting key macroeconomic indicators (e.g., inflation, interest rates, employment) into tradable assets, marking a critical case of the forecast space accelerating its push into mainstream finance. Data from the report shows Opinion’s trading activity is surging: - Total nominal trading volume **topped $6.4 billion** within the first 50 days post-launch; - Daily trading volume has exceeded $200 million multiple times, ranking **No. 1 in the industry**. This version aligns with American news style: uses concise, punchy language (e.g., "gaining traction," "surging," "topped"), prioritizes data clarity (bulleted for readability), and employs natural phrasing for U.S

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Exodus to Partner with MoonPay to Launch USD Stablecoin

On December 17th, self-sovereign digital asset platform Exodus Movement announced a partnership with MoonPay to jointly launch a fully backed U.S. dollar stablecoin. The stablecoin will be issued and managed by MoonPay, built atop the firm’s open stablecoin infrastructure. It will be integrated into Exodus Pay—Exodus’s payment product—with an official launch scheduled for early 2026.

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Bloomberg Strategist: Bitcoin is Headed to $10,000, Risk-Reward Structure Has Shifted

On December 17, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone stated Bitcoin faces retracement pressure, with its price expected to fall near $10,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor recently told the Miami Economic Club: “We used money we couldn’t afford to lose to buy Bitcoin.” McGlone noted he admires Saylor, adding that Saylor’s 2020 entry into Bitcoin (when prices hovered around $10,000) drove a 10x surge in its value. However, he said many key market expectations have already been met: the launch of ETFs, U.S. leaders acknowledging Bitcoin’s benefits, and broader mainstream adoption. Today, CoinMarketCap lists 28,000 cryptocurrencies—up from just one in 2009. With major positive developments materializing, the surge in crypto assets, and market expectations fully priced in, the short-term risk-reward structure has shifted.

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TRX to be Listed on Bitget PoolX, Locked TRX, BTT, SUN, JST to Unlock 170,000 TRX

Bitget PoolX is launching a TRON (TRX) event on December 17th, with a total prize pool of 179,000 TRX. The staking (lock-up) channel will be open from 5:00 PM UTC+8 on December 17th through 5:00 PM UTC+8 on December 24th. This event features four staking pools: TRX, BTT, SUN, and JST. Users can choose to stake their tokens based on their preferences. For full product details and event rules, please visit the official Bitget platform.

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