Analyst: Bitcoin Options Long-Short Setup Diverges, Funding Flows Indicate Cautious Sentiment

On December 18, Derive founder Nick Forster told *The Block* that traders have shifted sharply toward defensive structural positioning. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has climbed to nearly 45%, while skew remains around -5%—and longer-term skew is anchored at that level through Q1 and Q2 of next year. Ahead of the upcoming expiry, market positions show clear polarization: call option open interest is still building at $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, indicating some traders are still betting on a potential sharp Bitcoin rebound. However, overall fund flows signal heightened caution. Forster noted shorts are building a "significant amount of put option exposure" near the $85,000 strike to hedge against a short-term Bitcoin drop below this key level. He added that option-implied probabilities still reflect a challenging market: the market assigns Bitcoin only ~30% odds of hitting $100,000 and ~10% odds of reclaiming its all-time high.