Shitcoin Season Index remains at a low level, currently at 17

On December 21, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor once again shared information related to Bitcoin Trackers. Per historical patterns, MicroStrategy typically discloses updates on its additional Bitcoin holdings the day after such announcements are made.

On December 21, Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, said: "The current three-month average core inflation rate stands at 1.6%, and Trump is seeking a data-dependent candidate for Federal Reserve Chair." (FXStreet)

On December 21, Cathie Wood—founder of ARK Invest—said 2026 could be a "Goldilocks year." After facing tariff risks, government shutdown risks, and hawkish Fed rhetoric, she noted that if oil prices and rents keep falling, the U.S. inflation rate could drop to zero or below.

Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn noted in a December 21 post that Bitcoin is projected to hit $250,000 by end-2027. He added that 2026’s trend is too volatile to forecast, though a new all-time high remains possible. Current options market pricing shows Bitcoin has roughly equal odds of falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 by end-June 2026; odds of hitting $50,000 or $250,000 by end-2026 are also close. This wide range reflects high mid-term uncertainty. As of this writing, the broader crypto market is mired in a bear market, and Bitcoin has yet to build clear bullish momentum. Short-term downside risks persist until BTC firmly holds the $100k-$105k range. Macro uncertainties are mounting too, including the pace of AI capex, monetary policy conditions, and November’s U.S. midterm elections. Year-to-date, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility profile has been easing—partly driven by broader covered selling and the rollout of Bitcoin yield-generating strategies. Notably,

December 21: Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Bitcoin custody firm Casa, said in a social media post, “I’ve been publicly talking about the risk quantum computing poses to Bitcoin for 18 months. My main takeaway: I truly hope quantum computing development stalls or even retreats—because adapting Bitcoin to the post-quantum era will be extremely tricky, for many reasons.” “Quantum computers won’t break the Bitcoin network in the short term. We’ll keep monitoring its progress. That said, a full overhaul of the Bitcoin network (and unprecedented fund migration) could take 5 to 10 years. We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst-case scenario.”

December 21 On-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reports the whale that’s been consistently shorting BTC since March 2025 cut another 20 BTC from its position 20 minutes ago, netting a $465,000 profit. Remaining open short position: 550.7 BTC (valued at $48.6M), with unrealized gains of $12.8M, funding fee profits of $9.6M, and total account profits exceeding $55.51M.