Analysis: Epic Distribution by Long-Term Holders After 10/11 Flash Crash, Significant Shift in BTC Cost Structure

**BTC On-Chain Cost Structure Shifts Amid Current Downturn: Analyst** On December 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy cites the October 11 selloff as the start of the current BTC downturn, highlighting key shifts in the token’s on-chain cost structure over the past two months: - **Top Accumulation Zones**: The $80k–$90k band holds the most BTC (2.54 million), up 1.87 million from Oct 11—making it the strongest accumulation zone to date. Next are $90k–$100k (add 324k BTC) and $100k–$110k (add 87k BTC). - **Profit/Loss Balance**: With current prices as the midpoint, 6.17 million BTC sit in unrealized losses (above current levels), while 7.46 million are in unrealized gains (below). Excluding Satoshi’s holdings and long-lost BTC, the chip cost structure is nearly balanced. - **Recent Changes (Oct 11–Dec 20)**: Unrealized gains below current prices dropped by 1.33 million BTC. Trapped positions above $110k fell by 902k BTC, but the $100k–$110k band saw no decline—instead adding 87k BTC. Top-tier chips sold off during the downturn, while other positions have stabilized. - **Massive Profit-Taking**: Ongoing profit-taking is driven by the 4-year cycle theory, macro uncertainty, quantum threats, and other market concerns pushing long-term holders to offload. The largest selling pressure comes from BTC accumulated in the $60k–$70k range (mostly pre-2024 U.S. election holdings), as holders rush to cash out amid sharp profit declines. - **Key Support Watch**: The $70k–$80k band is a “thin air pocket” with just 190k BTC remaining—held by only a small subset of participants. A drop to this range could attract significant new liquidity, providing price support.