Greeks.live: The consensus points to low volatility remaining over the next two weeks, suggesting the market may continue to be flat and gradually decline

On December 23, Greeks.live noted in a social media post that this week falls during the Christmas holiday—with U.S. stock markets closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. During this period, institutional and retail investors in Europe and the U.S. typically step back from trading, a trend that usually holds until after New Year’s Day. This Friday (the 26th) marks the annual settlement day, with over 50% of current total options open interest set to expire. Most institutions have opted to roll over positions in advance. Since last week, implied volatility (IV) across all major expiry dates has fallen sharply, alongside a rise in block trades. Combined with declining volatility, the Christmas trading lull, and year-end position rolling, Bitcoin’s IV for all key expiry dates has dropped by more than 5% over the past month—with short-to-medium-term IV down over 10%. Ethereum has seen an even steeper IV decline. Collectively, these data signal subdued market expectations: consensus leans toward sustained low volatility for the next two weeks. The market is likely to trade flat over the next half-month, with a high probability of a gradual downward trend.