A Whale with $2.6M Shorts LIT, Valuation Discrepancy Deepens Ahead of Airdrop

As of Dec 25, HyperInsight monitoring shows a whale address (0xdaa) deposited $2.6M in collateral to Hyperliquid yesterday and opened a ~$1.256M 1x-leveraged short position on LIT. The position has an average entry price of $3.53 and a liquidation price of $6.98. As of press time, the address is still adding to the position, with $970K in unused collateral remaining. LIT is currently trading at ~$3.47, with a pre-market fully diluted valuation (FDV) of ~$3.4B. For market sentiment, Polymarket data shows the probability of the bet “Lighter’s FDV remains above $3B one day post-listing” has dropped ~7% today, now sitting at ~55%. Previously, on Dec 20, Lighter transferred 250M LIT tokens (~25% of total supply) to a new address. If this tranche is fully used for future airdrops, each Lighter point would correspond to ~20.8 LIT tokens. Based on current pre-market prices, each point is valued at ~$71.1, and most of the market expects Lighter to airdrop on Dec 31.