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From Betting on Trump to Wagering on the NFL: Prediction Markets Set to Hit All-Time Highs in 2025

2 hours ago

December 26, 2025 marked a milestone for the prediction market industry, with platforms Polymarket and Kalshi leading the charge—driving surges in investment, media coverage, and valuations as the space inches toward mainstream acceptance. With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on the horizon, the prediction market is poised to replicate the trading frenzy seen during the 2024 presidential race. The key question now: Can these platforms transition from being “traffic and topic-driven” to scalable prediction infrastructure? ### Capital Flows & Valuation Surges - **Kalshi**: Secured $1 billion in November funding (led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG) at an $11 billion valuation, following an October $300 million Series D round that valued it at $5 billion. - **Polymarket**: NYSE parent ICE invested $2 billion, with CEO Shayne Coplan later disclosing a ~$9 billion valuation. Analysts note the prediction market’s core value lies not in short-term revenue, but in collective intelligence and globally distributed predictive data. Sportstensor CEO Leo Chan adds this data is highly valuable to both financial institutions and non-trading users. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction market trading volumes spiked—with Chainalysis estimating a French Polymarket whale netted $78.7 million betting on Trump’s victory. In 2025, the two platforms ramped up partnerships: - Kalshi teamed with CNBC and CNN - Polymarket partnered with Yahoo Finance and UFC - NHL signed multi-year licensing deals with both platforms As midterms near, the prediction market is set for another boom. But consensus holds 2026 will be a watershed year to test the space’s long-term value: Whether platforms can prove their unique role in information discovery, risk pricing, and decision support will determine if the sector moves from frenzy to maturity.
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A certain trader is simultaneously short on BTC, ETH, and SOL, with a total unrealized gain of over $1.77 million.

December 26th — Per lookonchain monitoring data, crypto trader 0x94d3 has delivered strong recent performance: After selling 255 BTC (~$21.77M), the trader shifted to shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL, netting $3.85M in profits. Currently, 0x94d3 is again shorting all three assets simultaneously, with unrealized profits topping $1.77M.

8 minutes ago

Spot gold rose to $4540 per ounce, up 1.35% intraday

December 26: Spot gold climbed to $4,540 per ounce, gaining 1.35% in intraday trading. Spot palladium surged past $1,900 per ounce, up more than 12% on the day. Spot platinum extended its rally, jumping over 10% intraday to hit an all-time high of $2,452.95 per ounce. (Source: Oriental Wealth)

8 minutes ago

In the past 24 hours, the entire network has seen $258 million in liquidations, with long positions being the primary force behind the liquidations.

As of December 26, per Coinglass data, total net liquidations across crypto markets over the past 24 hours reached $258 million. Long positions accounted for $155 million of the total, while short positions made up $103 million. Globally, 95,484 traders were liquidated in the same period, with the largest single liquidation being a $14.14 million BTC-USD position on the Hyperliquid exchange.

8 minutes ago

Analysis: Bitcoin Derivatives Suppression Unwinds, Price Discovery Mechanism Returns

On December 26th, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic published a post highlighting positive shifts in Bitcoin’s current price structure. Recent pullbacks continue to attract buying support, with prior lows holding firm—signaling a constructive overall market trend. A key structural change is that the derivative “deleveraging effect” has largely dissipated. Following the settlement of Bitcoin’s largest-ever options expiration (notional volume ~$23.6 billion), the price suppression driven by hedging activity in recent weeks is ending. Negentropic noted that before the options expiry, market uptrends were often suppressed by mechanical hedging—not genuine supply and demand dynamics. As relevant funds exited the market, BTC is no longer “pinned,” and the price structure is expected to revert to market-driven forces. The price discovery mechanism will return, with upward bias gradually strengthening. From a macro perspective, he emphasized the liquidity environment remains improving.

8 minutes ago

Dutch Bank ABN AMRO Receives MiCAR Approval and Launches Blockchain-Based Derivatives

On December 26, Dutch lender ABN AMRO scored a key win in the digital asset sector. Its German subsidiary Hauck Aufh?user Digital Custody has been authorized under the EU’s **Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR)**, making it one of the first approved firms to offer crypto asset custody and trading services to institutional clients under the bloc’s unified regulatory framework. MiCAR took effect on December 30, 2024. Approved by Germany’s financial watchdog BaFin, the subsidiary can now custody and manage crypto assets for clients. As part of ABN AMRO’s European digital asset strategy, it plans to roll out these services to other EU member states gradually via the bloc’s passporting scheme. Separately, ABN AMRO and DZ BANK completed the first cross-border over-the-counter (OTC) Smart Derivative Contract (SDC) trade. Powered by blockchain, the 10-day trade automated settlement, valuation, and collateral management on-chain. Daily cash payments were processed via SEPA, with f

8 minutes ago

「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Long Position Total Unrealized Loss Expands to $56.74 Million

On December 26, monitoring data from HyperInsight reveals the "BTC OG Insider Whale" continues to hold a combined $740 million in long positions across BTC, ETH, and SOL. As of the same date, the whale’s total unrealized loss has widened to $56.74 million, and it has already paid $3.0222 million in funding fees. Breakdown of current positions: - ETH long: $591.72 million (entry price: $3,147.39; unrealized loss: $48.98 million) - BTC long: $86.99 million (entry price: $91,506.7; unrealized loss: $4.68 million) - SOL long: $62.18 million (entry price: $130.19; unrealized loss: $4.66 million)

8 minutes ago