Ethereum's historical average January return is 20.63%, Bitcoin's January average return is 3.81%

Jan 1st — Per HTX market data, Ethereum closed 2025 at $2,984, marking a 12.6% full-year decline. The token opened the year at $3,414 and followed an inverted "N" trajectory: a yearly low of $1,385 in April, a gradual recovery, and a peak of $4,955 on August 25.

Data from HTX on January 1 shows Bitcoin posted a 7.84% annual drop in 2025, closing the year at $87,950. The cryptocurrency opened 2025 at $95,432. Key 2025 developments: - Jan 21: Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential inauguration; Bitcoin briefly topped $109,000 before pulling back. - Mar 7: Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. - Apr 7: Trump signed an “Equal Tariffs” executive order, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000. Subsequently, Bitcoin rallied on three catalysts: rising institutional demand, expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and the U.S. government shutdown. It hit a 2025 high of $126,181 on Oct 7—marking a historic peak. However, an Oct 11 flash crash triggered over $20 billion in liquidations, drying up liquidity and sending Bitcoin tumbling to ~$80,000 before stabilizing.

**December 31 (FXStreet) — A Citigroup economist warned on Monday that the recent drop in initial jobless claims around the holiday season should be viewed with caution. During the Christmas week, initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 from 215,000, missing forecasters’ consensus expectation of 220,000. Citigroup noted: “Seasonal adjustment challenges around this year’s holiday weeks appear far more acute than usual, and more reliable signals from initial claims may not emerge until late January.” While layoffs remain at historically low levels, the bank expects December non-farm payrolls to rise by 75,000—data for which is set to be released next week. Citigroup also projected: “We still anticipate the unemployment rate will climb to 4.7%, partly due to a pickup in the labor force participation rate.”**

On December 31, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone said cryptocurrency’s performance following a risk-off adjustment has lagged global equities—potentially signaling a rapidly advancing risk-asset cycle is nearing its end. “From late 2017 through December 30, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) has risen roughly 90%, matching the total market capitalization gain of global stocks,” he noted. “Meanwhile, its annualized volatility is about 7x higher—meaning crypto assets haven’t delivered commensurate excess returns despite carrying far greater risk.”

On December 31, Coinbase’s Director of Investment Research David Duong published an article noting: While cryptocurrency prices have been somewhat subdued lately, this remains an extraordinary, transformative era for the crypto ecosystem. I believe the asset class’s core trait still lies in accelerating institutional adoption—and a broader, more diverse investor base that’s reshaping overall demand. Put simply, the crypto industry’s full potential hasn’t been fully unlocked yet. A key driver behind the crypto sector’s shift from a niche market to an emerging pillar of global financial infrastructure is the evolving regulatory landscape. As global regulatory frameworks grow clearer, the U.S. is advancing stablecoin regulation and market structure clarity, while Europe pushes forward with integrating the MiCA rulebook—fundamentally altering how institutions strategize, manage risk, and stay compliant. The direct outcome? True operational readiness: clearer policy guardrails for

As of December 31st, Polymarket odds show Michael Hassett—Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers—becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair have dropped to 44%. Meanwhile, odds for Janet Yellen have risen to 33%, and Jerome Powell’s odds stand at 11%. Earlier reports noted U.S. President Trump said he plans to announce his Fed Chair nomination in January.