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On July 31st, Tom Graff, the Chief Investment Officer of Facet Company, stated that the Federal Reserve is clearly in a rather delicate situation. Logically speaking, they had anticipated that the new tariffs would bring a certain level of inflation. Ideally, the Fed would prefer to wait until inflation reaches its peak before considering a rate cut. Nevertheless, the pressure is constantly building. Even if the White House is not applying external pressure, the recent weakness in the labor market is sufficient to cause concern for the Fed. In fact, this is likely the reason why Bullard and Bowman voted against maintaining the existing interest rate and advocated for a rate cut at this meeting. I believe that this decision has laid the groundwork for the Fed to initiate rate cuts at the September meeting and may implement 1 to 2 more rate cuts this year. The challenge lies in the fact that despite the potential for rising prices, the Fed still needs to cut rates. This will pose extrem

On July 31st, analyst Chris Anstey declared that Powell mentioned, "There remains a great deal and a great deal of uncertainty to navigate through. Indeed, we are constantly obtaining more data. However, it seems to be a distance away at present, the conclusion of that process. I believe there will be a lot of developments out there." This assertion leans towards a hawkish stance. The Federal Reserve Chair Powell also pointed out that it is not feasible to make a decision six weeks from now based on the June forecasts (dot plot). In his personal view, we are in a moderately restrictive range, but there is a range of opinions on this matter. (FXStreet)

On July 31st, Kathy Bostjancic, the Chief Economist at American Life Insurance Company, declared that surprisingly, the Fed removed the previous language regarding the reduction of uncertainty in the economic outlook from the policy statement and instead focused on the fact that uncertainty remains "still elevated." In our perspective, although uncertainty still exists, it has actually decreased significantly as the trade and tariff situation has become more clarified. (FX678)

On July 31st, Federal Reserve Chair Powell declared that the economy is in a favorable state, with inflation being slightly higher than the target. The present policy stance has placed us in a beneficial position to respond promptly. The Fed remains committed to its dual mandate. (Xinhua News Agency)

On July 31st, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the year-on-year June core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate might be 2.7%. Although inflation has moderated compared to 2022, it still remains at a relatively high level. The majority of long-term inflation expectations indicators are in line with the Fed's target. Tariffs have led to an increase in the prices of some goods. Whether inflation is transient or more persistent remains to be seen. (FX678)

On July 31st, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the reasonable assumption is that the impact of tariffs on inflation is of a temporary nature. The forthcoming data will assist the Fed in determining the future policy direction. Given the inflation risks, the current policy stance is appropriate. The current policy can be characterized as moderately restrictive. (FX168)