VanEck: Bitcoin Could Hit $2.9 Million by 2050

On January 9, VanEck released a new report on Bitcoin’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, projecting robust growth for Bitcoin over the next few decades and outlining how institutional investors could allocate the asset in diversified portfolios. Authored by VanEck’s Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, the report forecasts Bitcoin will hit $2.9 million per coin by 2050 in its base-case scenario—implying a ~15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from current prices. The model assumes Bitcoin will capture 5–10% of global trade and become a central bank reserve asset, making up 2.5% of their balance sheets. In a conservative (bear market) scenario, Bitcoin’s annual growth would slow to just 2%, reaching ~$130,000 per coin by 2050. For an extreme bullish “super Bitcoinization” case—where Bitcoin represents 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—each coin could theoretically hit $53.4 million, translating to a 29% CAGR. The report highlights Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset for institutional portfolios. VanEck recommends allocating 1–3% of a typical diversified portfolio to Bitcoin; for higher-risk-tolerant investors, a historical allocation of up to 20% could optimize returns. The firm notes Bitcoin is moving beyond its speculative roots, has the potential to become a reserve asset, and acts as a hedge against currency depreciation—especially in developed markets grappling with high sovereign debt levels.