Analyst: Bitcoin Experienced 'Capitulation Event' in November 2025, Consolidation Phase Expected in Q1-Q2 This Year

On January 10, 2025, analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly noted that Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTHs) endured the most aggressive selling phase on record that year. Despite the selling pressure sparking market volatility, on-chain data suggests this pressure may be fading—potentially laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next upward price cycle. Key data highlights: - Nearly $300 billion in Bitcoin dormant for at least a year re-entered circulation in 2025. - The period November 15–December 14, 2025, marked one of the most intense LTH selling sprees in over five years. Tamuly explained that since 2019, sharp LTH supply drops have rarely happened in isolation. They typically align with signs of Bitcoin’s trend exhaustion—either an uptrend nearing its end or a structural market transition. Price weakness emerged in October, but the most severe selling followed: a 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November 2025. This sequence signals a **capitulation sell-off** (not orderly profit-taking) and marks a cycle reset, not a continuation of the prior trend. Since December, LTH supply has stabilized at ~13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin’s price has entered consolidation. The LTH/short-term holder (STH) supply ratio confirms this pattern: whenever the ratio falls to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to a new high within weeks. Last December, the ratio dropped to roughly -0.53, followed by narrower price swings and stalled momentum—matching cycle reset, not trend continuation, traits. Consolidation in Q1 and Q2 2025 may form a bottoming period, with a sustained rally more likely to unfold in Q3.