Next Week Macro Outlook: CPI Challenges Fed Hawks, Geopolitical Firepower Counters Index Sell-off

**Market Update: 2026 Starts Strong; Key Data, Fed Speeches, Geopolitics Ahead** As of January 10, 2026—marking the first full trading week of the year—cross-asset markets are seeing a synchronous rally, with Wall Street risk sentiment rebounding sharply. Investor risk appetite is clearly on the rise: the S&P 500 gained 1.6% this week, while the Russell 2000 jumped 4.6%. Notably, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) pulled in $10 billion in just days—a stunning inflow for a passive fund. These moves signal a strong start to 2026. ### Key U.S. Economic Data (All Times ET): - **Tuesday, 9:30 PM**: U.S. Dec CPI (non-seasonally adjusted YoY, seasonally adjusted MoM); U.S. Dec core CPI (seasonally adjusted MoM, non-seasonally adjusted YoY) - **Wednesday, 9:30 PM**: U.S. Nov retail sales (MoM); U.S. Nov PPI (YoY/MoM); U.S. Q3 current account - **Thursday, 9:30 PM**: U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 10); U.S. Jan NY Fed/Philly Fed manufacturing indices; U.S. Nov import price index (MoM) ### Fed & Geopolitical Watch: Fed officials are set for a flurry of speeches next week. Markets are pricing in no rate cuts before Jerome Powell’s successor takes office (per accompanying chart). Bank of America Global Research’s Strategy Team noted Friday’s data solidified their view that the Fed will hold off on further rate cuts until the new Fed chair assumes office. Geopolitically: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with Danish and Greenlandic officials next week. Meanwhile, nationwide anti-government protests in Iran (including Tehran) could weigh on short-term market risk sentiment.