Ark Invest: Bitcoin Enters Institutionalization and Low Volatility Period, Still Expects Bitcoin to Reach at Least $300K by 2030

On January 15, CoinDesk reported that David Puell—Ark Invest’s analyst and portfolio manager—stated Bitcoin’s next phase will no longer hinge primarily on whether investors “believe” in the asset. Instead, it will depend more on how much exposure they’re willing to allocate and which investment tools they use to participate. With spot Bitcoin ETFs launching in 2024 and digital asset treasury strategies expanding rapidly, Bitcoin has crossed a key threshold to enter an institutionalized, mature stage. Combined holdings of ETFs and digital asset treasuries now account for ~12% of Bitcoin’s total supply—far exceeding expectations—and have become one of the main drivers of 2025 price trends (a trend likely to continue through 2026). As ETF and corporate treasury Bitcoin absorption outpaces forecasts, the market is shifting to a more institutionalized, less volatile phase. Ark Invest remains confident in its long-term Bitcoin valuation framework. Per Ark’s disclosed model, 2030 price forecasts are: ~$300k (bear market), ~$710k (baseline), and ~$1.5M (bull market). Puell noted that, fueled by the “digital gold” narrative and institutional adoption, the firm still expects Bitcoin to hit $300k–$1.5M by 2030. Puell added that as volatility declines and retracement levels narrow, Bitcoin could grow increasingly attractive to lower-risk-tolerance investors in the next cycle.