Option Market Data Reflects Traders Betting on Bitcoin to Fall or Retrace to $75,000

On January 20, traders on decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contract, and structured product protocol Derive.xyz flagged a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June. Derive.xyz Research Director Dr. Sean Dawson stated: “The options market shows a clear downward skew—there’s a 30% chance Bitcoin drops below $80,000 by June 26, versus just 19% odds it hits $120,000 in the same period.” Recently, after 10 countries opposed the U.S.’s plan to acquire Greenland, Trump threatened a 10% tariff on imports from 10 European nations. The renewed tariff concerns sent Bitcoin tumbling from $95,000 to $91,000. Dawson noted geopolitical tensions could drive further declines: “Escalating U.S.-Europe tensions (especially over the Greenland dispute) have raised the market’s systemic transition risk to a high-volatility environment—a dynamic not yet fully priced into current spot prices.” He explained the option skew indicator (measuring the price gap between bullish and bearish options) remains negative, signaling short-term downside worries. Similar signals are also emerging on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit. On both Derive and Deribit, open interest is heavily concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000—reflecting market expectations that Bitcoin could pull back to the mid-$75,000 range.