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Analysis: Bitcoin Correlated with Japanese 10-Year Government Bond Yields, Potential BOJ Stability Could Boost Bitcoin

2 hours ago

On January 23, Delphi Digital noted in a post that Bitcoin’s price has stayed stagnant while gold continues to climb—with Japanese government bonds (JGBs) likely a key driver. Typically, rising yields lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, pressuring gold. But when gold and yields rise in tandem, markets are pricing in policy strains and balance sheet vulnerabilities, not economic growth. The current 10-year JGB yield is roughly 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. Japanese banks structurally hold long-duration bonds and have deep exposure to JGBs in both their assets and collateral. Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin has a negative correlation with 10-year JGB yields and has struggled relatively as JGB yields rise over the long term. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervenes to stabilize the bond market, gold’s risk premium may ease—opening room for a Bitcoin rebound.
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