Wintermute: Bitcoin Wavers Between $85,000 and $94,000 Range, Macro and US Stock Earnings to Determine Next Move

On January 27, Wintermute noted that Bitcoin remains range-bound between $85,000 and $94,000 after failing to hit a $97,000 high earlier this month. Last week, ETFs posted historically large net outflows while Coinbase’s premium flipped to a discount—signaling U.S. selling pressure is weighing on the market. Despite last week’s weakness, the broader crypto market has lacked a clear directional trend over the past two months, sticking to its range. Meanwhile, as the U.S. dollar weakens, markets are betting on currency devaluation, with gold and silver hitting fresh all-time highs. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative has yet to materialize at this critical juncture—at least for now. Volatility remains extremely low, and cross-asset rotation is underway. The $85,000 level has been tested repeatedly: either forming a rock-solid bottom or an untriggered trap. Even with ongoing U.S. fund outflows and compressed volatility, prices are holding steady here, signaling buying support (though not aggressive). Gold is doing “what Bitcoin is supposed to do.” U.S. stocks are on hold for earnings to confirm current valuations. Bitcoin is in “no man’s land”: not weak enough to drop further, but not strong enough to reignite momentum. A clear catalyst for risk assets would be Fed intervention in the yen paired with ongoing dollar weakness. Another boost could come from strong earnings from the U.S. “Magnificent Seven” stocks, sustained AI momentum, and a Nasdaq rally—all of which may lift crypto markets. Conversely, a hawkish Powell stance or renewed trade tensions would pressure prices lower, likely retesting the $85,000 support level.