Was Vitalik also a Prediction Market 10U War God? The main account prefers to bet on high-probability events, with 141 trades resulting in a small loss of $1,120.

Jan 28 — Polymarket data shows Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin joined the platform with a verified account in March 2023, participating in 141 prediction markets total. His largest single profit was $54.8, while total accumulated losses across all trades hit $1,120. He currently has no open prediction trades. From his trading style, Vitalik favors betting on high-probability events. For example: - About two months ago, he invested $3,867 to bet on *"The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points in December 2025"* — a near-100% probability scenario — and ultimately made a $3.87 profit. - Three months ago, he placed a total of $600 in bets at 93% and 96% probabilities on *"MetaMask will not launch its own coin in 2025"*. He actively sold the position two months ago at a 97% probability, netting a $25.53 profit. Notably, most of Vitalik’s bet amounts are just $10, with single-trade profits typically only a few cents. But he didn’t start with this strategy. In his first trade after creating the account, he spent $665 to bet at a 56% probability that *"Arbitrum will not airdrop before March 31"*. (The actual announcement was made on March 16, and the airdrop occurred on March 23.) He eventually sold the position at a 26% probability, losing $356.74.